For Immediate Release
October 8, 2010
Contact: Susan Barry
732.433.7873
susan@annalittleforcongress.com
Anna C. Little for Congress, Inc.
LITTLE CAMP RESPONDS TO MONMOUTH POLL ADJUSTMENT
(HIGHLANDS, October 8) - Larry Cirignano, campaign manager for Republican congressional challenger Anna Little - responding to the Monmouth University Polling Institute's remarkable decision to adjust its numbers on a survey as a result of a numbers-crunching analysis by a local blogger - today released the following statement:
"In all my years of working to elect conservative candidates, I've never before seen a pollster acknowledge that his own numbers were wrong. But yesterday afternoon, that's exactly what happened, when the Monmouth University Polling Institute adjusted the numbers on the survey it released a day earlier and cut 22-year incumbent Frank Pallone's 'lead' by 25 percent, slashing it from 12 points to just 9.
"This remarkable turn of events happened as the result of an analysis by Art Gallagher, the editor of MoreMonmouthMusings.net.
"When the survey results were originally released, we questioned the methodology of the survey - it used robo-calls instead of live callers. We also raised a question regarding the composition of the survey sample, given that the survey indicated that Anna Little was leading Frank Pallone by 51-38 percent among Independents, yet Anna was still supposedly trailing by a dozen points - a clear indication that there were too many Democrats included in the survey.
"But Art Gallagher took the questions a step further. He checked the survey sample against voter file databases and demonstrated through a rigorous analysis (available online here: http://www.moremonmouthmusings.net/2010/10/06/musings-on-the-monmouth-university-cd-6-poll/) that the Monmouth numbers simply did not add up correctly. And then he got in touch with the survey director and shared the results of his analysis.
"And, to his credit, Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray acknowledged to Gallagher that 'your assumptions are as good as mine, and this is a very volatile electorate' - and then he adjusted his own numbers to reflect a 51-42 percent Pallone lead, instead of the 12-point lead he originally projected.
"When you stop to consider that the day before, Murray, speaking of what he believed to be a 12-point Pallone lead, said, 'A 12 point lead may look comfortable, but not when you consider the fact that Pallone regularly wins reelection by more than 30 points,' you can only ask yourself - just how worried is Frank Pallone now?
"We're quite confident that when our campaign's advertising kicks in, these numbers are going to shift even further in our favor.
"Remember, you cannot change Washington without changing the people we send to Washington!"
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Shame on the Asbury Park Press for using such a misleading title ("Pallone leads Little by nearly 2 to 1"), but much-deserved kudos to Art Gallagher for examining the results in greater detail and to Patrick Murray (of Monmouth Univ.) for correcting the results. Anna Little is within striking distance as the campaign heads into the last few weeks and voters start to focus on the races. The fact that 46% of respondents to the Monmouth poll had no opinion of Anna Little strongly suggests that she is unknown among these voters. That will easily be overcome as she continues to campaign, backed by an army of volunteers/supporters, and buys some media time. If I were Frank Pallone, I'd be scared, very scared.
ReplyDelete